Monthly Archives: February 2011

>Villanova-ND

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>Villanova at Notre Dame

Notre Dame (23-5, 12-4) has won nine of its last 10, all of which were Big East games. With a victory Monday, it would secure a double-bye in the conference tournament while staying in the thick of the race for the league title.

The ninth-ranked Irish will try to do so as they look to go undefeated at home for the first time in three years.

Ben Hansbrough leads the Irish in scoring with 18 ppg and averages a team-high foour apg as well.  Tim Abromitas is averaging 15 ppg and six rpg.  The third Notre Dame in double figures, Carleton Scott, is pouring in 11 ppg and a team-high seven rpg.

Villanova is doing the opposite of what Notre Dame has done.  The Wildcats have lost four of their past six games and stumbled down the Big East standings after a strong start, just as it did last season. The Wildcats opened 2009-10 by winning 20 of 21 but lost five of their final nine regular-season games.

Leading scorer Corey Fisher has struggled badly over the past two games, totaling 10 points and shooting 4 of 26. Fisher is averaging 15.5 points, but has been held to 12 or fewer in four of the last five contests.  Prediction: Notre Dame 86-77

>Marquette-UConn

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>Marquette at Connecticut

   It’s been a tough week for the Huskies, first losing to Louisville Friday, then this week learning of NCAA sanctions following an investigation of the program since a report by Yahoo! Sports in March 2009 that former team manager Josh Nochimson helped guide recruit Nate Miles to the school, giving him lodging, transportation, meals and representation.

The Huskies will not receive a postseason ban, but the program was hit with scholarship reductions for three academic years, recruiting restrictions, permanent disassociation of a booster and three years probation.  They will also be without coach Jim Calhoun this game, as he will be attending the funeral services for his sister-in-law.

   But what the Huskies will really need to focus on is stopping Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 18 ppg and 6 rpg against them in three career games. 

   The Golden Eagles may need to improve on their 2-9 mark against AP Top 25 teams to gain an NCAA tournament berth. Six of those losses have been by five or fewer points.  Prediction: Huskies win 75-69

>Loyola-Valpo

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>Loyola at Valparaiso 

   This season has been common to recent years for the Ramblers.  A hot start gives them confidence and their fans optimism, but then the conference part of the season rolls around and the fire seems to fizzle out as the season goes along. 

   The Ramblers started the season 7-0 and looked to have a lot of momentum going into their game against national runner-up Butler.  Although the Bulldogs squeaked by, it sent the Ramblers into a bit of a downspiral, as they lost eight of their next 11 games.  While their 15-13 record doesn’t exactly knock them out of any postseason race, a win here and against Butler (the third and second place teams) would go a long way. 

   Geoff McCammon leads four Ramblers in double figures at 14 ppg.  Ben Averkamp and Terrance Hill are right behind him at 12 and 11.5 ppg, respectively.  Walter Gibler is the other double digit scorer at 10 ppg.  Jordan Hicks, who broke his foot for the second time in two years, was averaging 12 ppg before his injury in early December.

   Valparaiso is one of three teams in the Horizon League that has amassed 20 or more victories (Butler and Cleveland State are the others).  The thing that has led them to a 20-9 record and 11-5 conference record has been its offense efficiency.  The Crusaders are in the top 75 in scoring, averaging over 73 ppg, 21st in assists with 16 apg and 14th in field goal percentage, hitting 48 percent of their shots. 

   Brandon Wood leads four Crusaders in double figure scoring, pouring in 17 ppg.  He has scored more than 20 points in the teams’ last three games.  Next are Cory Johnson (14 ppg), Ryan Broekhoff (11 ppg) and Howard Little (10 ppg).  What is crazy statistically for Valpo is that those four are also the top rebounders, averaging between 4.2 and 4.8 boards per contest.  Little and Broekhoff lead the team at 4.8 rpg a pop.          Prediction:  Valpo wins 81-74

>Bradley-Illinois State

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>Bradley at Illinois State

  Unlike recent seasons, this one has been a struggle for the downstate teams.  In fact, this is a battle of the last place teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.

   Bradley’s struggles are somewhat confusing because they returned four of their starters from last season.  Senior Andrew Warren is leading the team in scoring with 19 ppg and tied for the team-lead with Jordan Prosser for rebounds with 5.4 rpg.  Dodie Dunson is the only other player averaging double digits in scoring, putting in 10 ppg.  One positive for the Braves has been that they have won four of their last six games, after losing 11 straight.

   Illinois State, on the other hand, lost Osiris Eldridge and Dinma Odiakosa from last year’s squad, so it was somewhat expected to struggle, but whether it was this much, it is unknown.  The Redbirds have lost 14 of their last 17, including their last six.  After being explosive on offense in recent seasons, Illinois State has only one player, Austin Hill who is averaging over 10 ppg and he is only pouring in 10.6 ppg.  Prediction:  Bradley 67-60

>Michigan State-Minnesota

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>Michigan State at Minnesota

   Talk about battle of the teams on the bubble for an NCAA tournament bid.  Minnesota was expected to be at this point, Michigan State was not.  The Spartans got a HUGE win Saturday against Illinois and will look to get another one, this time on the road when they face off with the Gophers.  Tom Izzo even said himself that “this game (vs. Illinois) was bigger for us than for them.  We needed this one.”  But if they are going to end up getting the win, Kalin Lucas is going to need help.  He was the only one with more than nine points in the win vs. the Illini.

   Minnesota has lost five of six and this one proves to eb just as vital for their tournament hopes, as it does for the Spartans.  Turnovers and shaky shooting have been downfalls for the Gophers and they will need Blake Hoffarber and Trevor Mbakwe to keep up their stellar play.  Prediction: Spartans win 80-70

>Illinois at Ohio State

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>Illinois at Ohio State

   After starting the season 24-0, Ohio State has gone on a bit of a rough patch, losing two of their last three, to Wisconsin and Purdue, on the road.  It has been the doings of a red-hot guard that has done them in each time.  Jordan Taylor did it for Wisconsin and E’Twaun Moore for the Boilermakers. Now Illinois is hoping a third guard (Demetri McCamey? Brandon Paul?) will cause the Buckeyes some more problems as they head into their matchup in Columbus.

   I seem to write this every time, but this game is of importance to the Illini, especially after their loss Saturday to Michigan State.  They need at least a split in their final four games (OSU, IA, PUR, IND) to pretty much guarantee them a bid.  One problem for the Illini has been winning on the road in conference, as they have dropped five of seven of those contests. Prediction: Ohio State wins 77-70

>Weekend Predictions

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>The following with be a bunch of previews, altho shorter than they usually are. Nobody wants to read ridiculously long posts.  Learned that this summer.

Friday

Louisville vs. UConn
   UConn might have turned the corner late in the season with their win against Georgetown.  The Huskies will try to get revenge against Louisville, who beat UConn in a crazy double overtime win at the end of January.  Kemba Walker has been playing ridiculously, going for 31 pts and 10 assists against the Hoyas.  Since that win against Georgetown, Louisville has struggled going 3-3 in their last six games, including a four point win against DePaul.  Preston Knowles (15 ppg) and Peyton Siva (10 ppg and 5 apg) lead the Cardinals. Prediction: UConn 80-75

Saturday
Utah State at St. Mary’s
   This is by far the highlight of the BracketBusters matchups this weekend.  It is between the 23rd and 24th ranked teams in the country.  Utah State is 24-3, but has won 19 of its last 20 games.  Tai Wesley (14 ppg, 7 rpg), Brian Wilson (11 ppg) and Brockeith Payne (11 ppg) lead the Aggies.  St. Mary’s is coming off of an upset loss to San Diego on Wednesday, one that might knock them out of the rankings.  The Gaels are led by four players who score in double figures: Mickey McConnell (17 ppg, 7 apg), Rob Jones (14 ppg, 8 rpg), Matthew Dellavedova (13 ppg, 5 apg) and Mitchell Young (10 ppg, 5 rpg). Prediction: Utah State wins on the road, 86-80

Illinois at Michigan State
   This game is HUGE for the Spartans.  At 14-11, they might have to win out and win two games in the conference tournament to get into the NCAA’s.  What will help MSU is the four more teams in, as well as college basketball being down as a whole.  The Spartans have been uncharacteristically shaky at home, already losing four times, but will need Kalin Lucas and his 16 ppg to win. The Illini are in the midst of possibly their hardest stretch of games this season and have a trip to Ohio State looming after this one.  Prediction: Michigan State wins a needed game, 76-72

Michigan at Iowa
   Wednesday’s loss to Illinois might have been bad for the Wolverines, who are fighting for an NCAA berth.  Three of their next four games are winnable, but if they lose here, that might be a killer, one that sends the team to the NIT.  Iowa, on the other hand, is just looking for the season to be over, while also looking to place spoiler to teams like Michigan. Prediction: Michigan 80-67

Northwestern at Indiana
   Like Michigan and Michigan State, a win here is crucial for the slim chance the Wildcats have at a spot in the NCAA.  A win over Iowa put them at 15-10, but they will have to win their last four conference games to go .500 in conference play.  Indiana is not an easy place to play, however, as both Minnesota and Illinois, who were both ranked at the time, lost in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers are 11-5 at home. Prediction: Northwestern pulls out a win they wish could have come easier, 76-73

>Iowa vs. Northwestern

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>What once seemed like such a promising season for the Wildcats has turned to be the complete opposite. By losing five of their last six games, they have more than likely played their way out of an NCAA bid.  They have allowed at least 49 percent shooting against in their last six games. They are getting out rebounded by almost eight in Big Ten Games. They allow conference opponents to shoot 50 percent from the floor and 39.5 percent on three-point attempts.

 I know it seems as if nothing can go right for the ‘Cats, but that is far from the truth.  John Shurna, Drew Crawford and Michael Thompson are still the leaders of this team and when the shots are falling, NU is hard to beat.  Four of the next five games (Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Penn State) are winnable and if the Cats can get close to that .500 mark and win a game in the conference tourney, that streak of never making it into the NCAA’s might end.  But they will need Shurna (17 ppg), Thompson (14 ppg) and Crawford (12 ppg) to do what they do best: score.

Iowa is 10-15, 3-10. They sit just one game behind NU in the conference standings. The Hawkeyes own big three of Matt Gatens, Bryce Cartright and Melsahn Basabe aren’t as explosive as the triumvirate at Northwester, but are more than capable of getting the job done.
    
Basabe averages 10.5 PPG and his 7.0 rebounds per game rank sixth in the conference. He is also fifth in the Big Ten in field goal percentage. Cartright ranks third in the Big Ten is assists and averages 11.0 PPG. Gatens leads the conference making over 90 percent of his free throw attempts. At 12.5 PPG, he is the Hawkeyes leading scorer.  Prediction: Northwestern wins huge 80-65

>Minnesota vs. Penn State

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>Two weeks ago, Minnesota was looking pretty ranked in the top 20 at 16-4.  Fast forward two weeks and the Gophers may ow be on the bubble after losing four of five and dropping to 17-8. 

Trevor Mbakwe scored a season-high 24 points in Sunday’s win over Iowa and the Gophers will need more of this to help Minnesota get back on track.  They are going to have get their frontcourt to lead the way, as the health of point guard Blake Hoffarber will be in question as soreness and pain in a knee doesn’t just go away like that.  Ralph Sampson III, the other main clog in the middle, is coming off of his worst game of the year, one which saw him score only two points, will be looking to get back to the form that saw him score in double digits in the seven games prior to that.

Penn State, in its own right, might be playing for an NCAA bid.  It’s record (13-10) isn’t too flashy, but if the Nittany Lions manage to win two or three of their remaining five games, possibly upset Wisconsin or Ohio State and win a game in the conference tourney, who knows what might happen?  As they have been all year, Penn State is led by Talor Battle, who is still averaging over 20 ppg.  Prediction: The Nittany Lions are 16-4 at home, but lose a squeaker, 75-73

>Wisconsin vs. Purdue

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>Wisconsin at Purdue (Purdue is a 4.5 pt favorite)

Wisconsin is coming off of the win of the year, after derailing Ohio State’s route to an undefeated season.  Their 32-10 run was one of the more impressive runs you’ll see all year.  Now they’re stuck with a tough road game and it will be interesting to see if they regain focus or the high from the upset is still there.

With the win over the weekend, the Badgers have now won eight of their last 10 games, including a seven-point home win over the Boilermakers 15 days ago.  Two players, Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, are still the only players averaging double figures in scoring, with Leuer at 19 and Taylor at 18.  Taylor has been playing like one of the, if not the, top guards in the nation lately, scoring 30 and 27 points in two of the last three games, respectively.

Purdue’s next two games will most likely determine how they finish in the Big Ten, as they host Wisconsin and Ohio State this week.  They have yet to lose at home this season and will be looking for that home court advantage to fuel them to two upsets.  As has been the case all season, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore lead the team, with pint-sized point guard Lewis Jackson coming on strong as of late.  Prediction: Purdue 79-78